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Atletico Castegnato vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
J. I. Molina 87' (pen)
10/1/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 4Campo Sportivo Comunale Maselli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato52%
×Draw24%
Mori Santo Stefano24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.74
Mori Santo Stefano
1.12

Atletico Castegnato creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Mori Santo Stefano
0.53

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Mori Santo Stefano
2.24

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
76%
Atletico Castegnato or Mori Santo Stefano
76%
Draw or Mori Santo Stefano
48%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
28%
Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
52%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
25%
Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
67%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
31%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
68%
Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.74

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
52%
level
24%
Mori Santo Stefano scores more
24%

Atletico Castegnato at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Castegnato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'
J. I. MolinaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Atletico Castegnato 0–1 Mori Santo Stefano

Mori Santo Stefano beat Atletico Castegnato 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 1, 2023.

Goals: J. I. Molina (87' pen).

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Maselli in Adro.