Mori Santo Stefano 1–3 Adriese: Result & Stats

Mori Santo Stefano

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Adriese

J. I. Molina 49'

I. Ouro Agouda 86'

M. Colombi 58'

Unknown 39' (OG)

9/17/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 2Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano22%

×Draw23%

Adriese55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mori Santo StefanoExpected goals in this matchAdriese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.80

Mori Santo Stefano

1.06

Adriese

1.80

Adriese creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

0.76

creates per match

1.36

2.24

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano

0.76

Adriese

1.36

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano

2.24

Adriese

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Adriese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw

45%

Mori Santo Stefano or Adriese

77%

Draw or Adriese

78%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+

8%

Adriese wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals

65%

Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals

29%

Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals

9%

Adriese 1+ goals

83%

Adriese 2+ goals

54%

Adriese 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)

29%

Adriese (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Adriese attack 1.36 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more

22%

level

23%

Adriese scores more

55%

Adriese at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Own goal

49'

J. I. Molina

58'

M. Colombi

86'

I. Ouro Agouda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff