Adriese 0–0 Mori Santo Stefano: Result & Stats

Adriese

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mori Santo Stefano

1/14/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Adriese64%

×Draw21%

Mori Santo Stefano15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdrieseExpected goals in this matchMori Santo Stefano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.80

Adriese

1.94

Mori Santo Stefano

0.80

Adriese creates 142% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

1.64

creates per match

0.53

1.07

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Adriese

1.64

Mori Santo Stefano

0.53

allows per match

Adriese

1.07

Mori Santo Stefano

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Adriese or draw

85%

Adriese or Mori Santo Stefano

79%

Draw or Mori Santo Stefano

36%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+

39%

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals

86%

Adriese 2+ goals

58%

Adriese 3+ goals

30%

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals

55%

Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals

19%

Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)

81%

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.94

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Adriese scores more

64%

level

21%

Mori Santo Stefano scores more

15%

Adriese at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff