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Moreton City II vs Logan Lightning — Queensland Premier League 2026

Moreton City II
Moreton City II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
5/11/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 10Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moreton City II23%
×Draw18%
Logan Lightning59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton City II
1.59
Logan Lightning
2.60

Logan Lightning creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 44 away

creates per match

Moreton City II
1.09
Logan Lightning
1.84

allows per match

Moreton City II
3.36
Logan Lightning
2.09

finishing

Moreton City II+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City II ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Moreton City II or draw
41%
Moreton City II or Logan Lightning
82%
Draw or Logan Lightning
77%

Winning margin

Moreton City II wins by 2+
10%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Moreton City II 1+ goals
80%
Moreton City II 2+ goals
47%
Moreton City II 3+ goals
21%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
92%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
73%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Moreton City II (draw refunded)
28%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City II attack 1.09 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.59

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Moreton City II scores more
23%
level
18%
Logan Lightning scores more
59%

Logan Lightning at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreton City II vs Logan Lightning

Logan Lightning beat Moreton City II 5-1 in Queensland Premier League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.