Logan Lightning 5–0 Moreton City II: Result & Stats

Logan Lightning

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Moreton City II

8/10/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 21Cornubia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Logan Lightning69%

×Draw16%

Moreton City II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Logan LightningExpected goals in this matchMoreton City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.31

Logan Lightning

2.88

Moreton City II

1.31

Logan Lightning creates 120% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

2.12

creates per match

1.36

1.26

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

Logan Lightning

2.12

Moreton City II

1.36

allows per match

Logan Lightning

1.26

Moreton City II

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Moreton City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Logan Lightning ↓

Moreton City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Logan Lightning or draw

85%

Logan Lightning or Moreton City II

84%

Draw or Moreton City II

31%

Winning margin

Logan Lightning wins by 2+

49%

Moreton City II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Logan Lightning 1+ goals

94%

Logan Lightning 2+ goals

78%

Logan Lightning 3+ goals

54%

Moreton City II 1+ goals

73%

Moreton City II 2+ goals

38%

Moreton City II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)

82%

Moreton City II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Logan Lightning at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

Moreton City II away — creates 1.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Logan Lightning attack 2.12 + Moreton City II defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.88

Moreton City II attack 1.36 + Logan Lightning defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Logan Lightning scores more

69%

level

16%

Moreton City II scores more

15%

Logan Lightning at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff