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Moreton City II vs Ipswich — Queensland Premier League 2026

Moreton City II
Moreton City II
FT
1 – 1
Ipswich
Ipswich
4/13/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 7Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moreton City II22%
×Draw20%
Ipswich58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton City II
1.32
Ipswich
2.27

Ipswich creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

creates per match

Moreton City II
1.09
Ipswich
1.19

allows per match

Moreton City II
3.36
Ipswich
1.55

finishing

Moreton City II+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City II ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Moreton City II or draw
42%
Moreton City II or Ipswich
80%
Draw or Ipswich
78%

Winning margin

Moreton City II wins by 2+
9%
Ipswich wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Moreton City II 1+ goals
73%
Moreton City II 2+ goals
38%
Moreton City II 3+ goals
15%
Ipswich 1+ goals
90%
Ipswich 2+ goals
66%
Ipswich 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Moreton City II (draw refunded)
27%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City II attack 1.09 + Ipswich defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ipswich attack 1.19 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Moreton City II scores more
22%
level
20%
Ipswich scores more
58%

Ipswich at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Moreton City II 1–1 Ipswich

Moreton City II and Ipswich drew 1-1 in Queensland Premier League on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.