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Ipswich vs Moreton City II — Queensland Premier League 2026

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moreton City II
Moreton City II
7/13/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 18Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ipswich60%
×Draw19%
Moreton City II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
2.52
Moreton City II
1.47

Ipswich creates 71% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.39
Moreton City II
1.36

allows per match

Ipswich
1.58
Moreton City II
3.64

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Moreton City II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Moreton City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
79%
Ipswich or Moreton City II
81%
Draw or Moreton City II
40%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
39%
Moreton City II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
92%
Ipswich 2+ goals
71%
Ipswich 3+ goals
45%
Moreton City II 1+ goals
77%
Moreton City II 2+ goals
43%
Moreton City II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
74%
Moreton City II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

Moreton City II away — creates 1.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.39 + Moreton City II defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.52

Moreton City II attack 1.36 + Ipswich defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ipswich scores more
60%
level
19%
Moreton City II scores more
21%

Ipswich at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Ipswich 1–1 Moreton City II

Ipswich and Moreton City II drew 1-1 in Queensland Premier League on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.