Moreton City II 3–3 Caboolture: Result & Stats

Moreton City II

FT

3 – 3

Caboolture

2/23/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 1Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moreton City II22%

×Draw18%

Caboolture59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton City IIExpected goals in this matchCaboolture

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.63

Moreton City II

1.58

Caboolture

2.63

Caboolture creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 50 away

1.09

creates per match

1.90

3.36

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Moreton City II

1.09

Caboolture

1.90

allows per match

Moreton City II

3.36

Caboolture

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton City II+0.00on par

Caboolture+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City II ↓

Caboolture →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Moreton City II or draw

41%

Moreton City II or Caboolture

82%

Draw or Caboolture

78%

Winning margin

Moreton City II wins by 2+

10%

Caboolture wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Moreton City II 1+ goals

79%

Moreton City II 2+ goals

47%

Moreton City II 3+ goals

21%

Caboolture 1+ goals

93%

Caboolture 2+ goals

73%

Caboolture 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Moreton City II (draw refunded)

27%

Caboolture (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

Caboolture away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City II attack 1.09 + Caboolture defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.58

Caboolture attack 1.90 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Moreton City II scores more

22%

level

18%

Caboolture scores more

59%

Caboolture at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Caboolture will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff