Caboolture 3–2 Moreton City II: Result & Stats

Caboolture

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Moreton City II

5/25/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 12Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Caboolture58%

×Draw18%

Moreton City II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CabooltureExpected goals in this matchMoreton City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.79

Caboolture

2.81

Moreton City II

1.79

Caboolture creates 57% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 11 away

1.98

creates per match

1.36

2.22

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

Caboolture

1.98

Moreton City II

1.36

allows per match

Caboolture

2.22

Moreton City II

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par

Moreton City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Moreton City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw

76%

Caboolture or Moreton City II

82%

Draw or Moreton City II

42%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+

39%

Moreton City II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals

94%

Caboolture 2+ goals

76%

Caboolture 3+ goals

52%

Moreton City II 1+ goals

83%

Moreton City II 2+ goals

53%

Moreton City II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)

71%

Moreton City II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Moreton City II away — creates 1.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Moreton City II defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.81

Moreton City II attack 1.36 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Caboolture scores more

58%

level

18%

Moreton City II scores more

24%

Caboolture at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Caboolture will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff