Moreton City II vs Broadbeach United — Queensland Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Moreton City II15%
Broadbeach United69%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Broadbeach United creates 122% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over78
- Under22
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Moreton City II ↓
Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches
Broadbeach United away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Moreton City II attack 1.09 + Broadbeach United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29
Broadbeach United attack 2.38 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.87
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 69%?"
Broadbeach United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 69% does not mean "Broadbeach United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Broadbeach United
Brisbane Strikers
SC Wanderers
Robina City
Ipswich
Caboolture
Redlands United
Holland Park Hawks
Logan Lightning
North Star
St George Willawong
CapalabaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Moreton City II host Broadbeach United on Sunday, 18 August 2024 at 07:15. The match is part of the Queensland Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Queensland Premier League: Moreton City II 0–3 Broadbeach United
Broadbeach United beat Moreton City II 3-0 in Queensland Premier League on August 18, 2024.
The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.