Broadbeach United 5–0 Moreton City II

Broadbeach United

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Moreton City II

5/18/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 11Nikiforides Family Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Broadbeach United72%

×Draw15%

Moreton City II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broadbeach UnitedExpected goals in this matchMoreton City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.27

Broadbeach United

3.04

Moreton City II

1.27

Broadbeach United creates 139% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

2.45

creates per match

1.36

1.19

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

Broadbeach United

2.45

Moreton City II

1.36

allows per match

Broadbeach United

1.19

Moreton City II

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broadbeach United+0.00on par

Moreton City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broadbeach United ↓

Moreton City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Broadbeach United or draw

87%

Broadbeach United or Moreton City II

85%

Draw or Moreton City II

28%

Winning margin

Broadbeach United wins by 2+

52%

Moreton City II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Broadbeach United 1+ goals

95%

Broadbeach United 2+ goals

80%

Broadbeach United 3+ goals

57%

Moreton City II 1+ goals

72%

Moreton City II 2+ goals

36%

Moreton City II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Broadbeach United (draw refunded)

84%

Moreton City II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broadbeach United at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Moreton City II away — creates 1.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broadbeach United attack 2.45 + Moreton City II defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 3.04

Moreton City II attack 1.36 + Broadbeach United defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Broadbeach United scores more

72%

level

15%

Moreton City II scores more

13%

Broadbeach United at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Broadbeach United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff