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Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane Roar II — Queensland NPL 2026

Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
4/25/2026Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Moreton City Excelsior51%
×Draw20%
Brisbane Roar II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton City Excelsior
2.29
Brisbane Roar II
1.71

Moreton City Excelsior creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 91 away

creates per match

Moreton City Excelsior
2.79
Brisbane Roar II
1.92

allows per match

Moreton City Excelsior
1.50
Brisbane Roar II
1.79

finishing

Moreton City Excelsior+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City Excelsior ↓

Brisbane Roar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Moreton City Excelsior or draw
71%
Moreton City Excelsior or Brisbane Roar II
80%
Draw or Brisbane Roar II
49%

Winning margin

Moreton City Excelsior wins by 2+
31%
Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Moreton City Excelsior 1+ goals
90%
Moreton City Excelsior 2+ goals
66%
Moreton City Excelsior 3+ goals
40%
Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
82%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
51%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Moreton City Excelsior (draw refunded)
64%
Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City Excelsior at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

Brisbane Roar II away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City Excelsior attack 2.79 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.29

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.92 + Moreton City Excelsior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moreton City Excelsior scores more
51%
level
20%
Brisbane Roar II scores more
29%

Moreton City Excelsior at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Moreton City Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreton City Excelsior vs Brisbane Roar II

Moreton City Excelsior beat Brisbane Roar II 6-0 in Queensland NPL on April 25, 2026.