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Brisbane Roar II vs Moreton City Excelsior — Queensland NPL 2026

Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior
6/2/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 13Nudgee Recreation Reserve Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Brisbane Roar II25%
×Draw22%
Moreton City Excelsior53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar II
1.32
Moreton City Excelsior
1.98

Moreton City Excelsior creates 50% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 31 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.67
Moreton City Excelsior
2.00

allows per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.96
Moreton City Excelsior
0.97

finishing

Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par
Moreton City Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar II ↓

Moreton City Excelsior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar II or draw
47%
Brisbane Roar II or Moreton City Excelsior
78%
Draw or Moreton City Excelsior
75%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
11%
Moreton City Excelsior wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
73%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
38%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
15%
Moreton City Excelsior 1+ goals
86%
Moreton City Excelsior 2+ goals
59%
Moreton City Excelsior 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
33%
Moreton City Excelsior (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.96 · 94 matches

Moreton City Excelsior away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.67 + Moreton City Excelsior defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.32

Moreton City Excelsior attack 2.00 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brisbane Roar II scores more
25%
level
22%
Moreton City Excelsior scores more
53%

Moreton City Excelsior at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Moreton City Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane Roar II vs Moreton City Excelsior

Moreton City Excelsior beat Brisbane Roar II 3-1 in Queensland NPL on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Nudgee Recreation Reserve Field 1 in Brisbane.