Moreton Bay United 6–1 Brisbane Strikers

Moreton Bay United

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Brisbane Strikers

8/28/2021

Queensland NPL · Round 22Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Moreton Bay United45%

×Draw20%

Brisbane Strikers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton Bay UnitedExpected goals in this matchBrisbane Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.92

Moreton Bay United

2.21

Brisbane Strikers

1.92

Moreton Bay United creates 15% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 40 away

2.20

creates per match

1.88

1.95

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Moreton Bay United

2.20

Brisbane Strikers

1.88

allows per match

Moreton Bay United

1.95

Brisbane Strikers

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton Bay United+0.00on par

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton Bay United ↓

Brisbane Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Moreton Bay United or draw

66%

Moreton Bay United or Brisbane Strikers

80%

Draw or Brisbane Strikers

55%

Winning margin

Moreton Bay United wins by 2+

26%

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Moreton Bay United 1+ goals

89%

Moreton Bay United 2+ goals

65%

Moreton Bay United 3+ goals

38%

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals

85%

Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals

57%

Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Moreton Bay United (draw refunded)

57%

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton Bay United at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.95 · 64 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton Bay United attack 2.20 + Brisbane Strikers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.21

Brisbane Strikers attack 1.88 + Moreton Bay United defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Moreton Bay United scores more

45%

level

20%

Brisbane Strikers scores more

34%

Moreton Bay United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Moreton Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff