Brisbane Strikers 1–4 Moreton Bay United

Brisbane Strikers

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Moreton Bay United

2/29/2020

Queensland NPL · Round 4Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Brisbane Strikers31%

×Draw21%

Moreton Bay United48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane StrikersExpected goals in this matchMoreton Bay United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.10

Brisbane Strikers

1.65

Moreton Bay United

2.10

Moreton Bay United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 61 away

1.54

creates per match

2.05

2.15

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Brisbane Strikers

1.54

Moreton Bay United

2.05

allows per match

Brisbane Strikers

2.15

Moreton Bay United

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Moreton Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Strikers ↓

Moreton Bay United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Brisbane Strikers or draw

52%

Brisbane Strikers or Moreton Bay United

79%

Draw or Moreton Bay United

69%

Winning margin

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+

15%

Moreton Bay United wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals

81%

Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals

49%

Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals

23%

Moreton Bay United 1+ goals

88%

Moreton Bay United 2+ goals

62%

Moreton Bay United 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)

39%

Moreton Bay United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Strikers at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.15 · 39 matches

Moreton Bay United away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.75 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Strikers attack 1.54 + Moreton Bay United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Moreton Bay United attack 2.05 + Brisbane Strikers defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brisbane Strikers scores more

31%

level

21%

Moreton Bay United scores more

48%

Moreton Bay United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Moreton Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff