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Moreland Zebras vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
FT
1 – 1
Moreland City
Moreland City
5/7/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moreland Zebras52%
×Draw21%
Moreland City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland Zebras
2.16
Moreland City
1.54

Moreland Zebras creates 40% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

creates per match

Moreland Zebras
1.69
Moreland City
1.80

allows per match

Moreland Zebras
1.28
Moreland City
2.63

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw
72%
Moreland Zebras or Moreland City
79%
Draw or Moreland City
48%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
31%
Moreland City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
88%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
63%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
36%
Moreland City 1+ goals
79%
Moreland City 2+ goals
45%
Moreland City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
65%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Moreland City defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.16

Moreland City attack 1.80 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more
52%
level
21%
Moreland City scores more
28%

Moreland Zebras at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreland Zebras vs Moreland City

Moreland Zebras and Moreland City drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 7, 2021.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.