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Moreland City vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland City
Moreland City
FT
3 – 0
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
7/31/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18Campbell Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Moreland City42%
×Draw24%
Moreland Zebras34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland City
1.58
Moreland Zebras
1.39

Moreland City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Moreland City
1.75
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Moreland City
1.34
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Moreland City+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland City ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Moreland City or draw
66%
Moreland City or Moreland Zebras
76%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
58%

Winning margin

Moreland City wins by 2+
21%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Moreland City 1+ goals
79%
Moreland City 2+ goals
47%
Moreland City 3+ goals
21%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
75%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
40%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Moreland City (draw refunded)
56%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland City at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland City attack 1.75 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Moreland City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moreland City scores more
42%
level
24%
Moreland Zebras scores more
34%

Moreland City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moreland City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreland City vs Moreland Zebras

Moreland City beat Moreland Zebras 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Campbell Reserve in Melbourne.