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Moreland Zebras vs Langwarrin — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
FT
5 – 0
Langwarrin
Langwarrin
7/15/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moreland Zebras47%
×Draw23%
Langwarrin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland Zebras
1.77
Langwarrin
1.35

Moreland Zebras creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 67 away

creates per match

Moreland Zebras
1.69
Langwarrin
1.42

allows per match

Moreland Zebras
1.28
Langwarrin
1.84

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par
Langwarrin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

Langwarrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw
71%
Moreland Zebras or Langwarrin
77%
Draw or Langwarrin
53%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
26%
Langwarrin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
83%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
53%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
26%
Langwarrin 1+ goals
74%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
39%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
62%
Langwarrin (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Langwarrin away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Langwarrin defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

Langwarrin attack 1.42 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more
47%
level
23%
Langwarrin scores more
29%

Moreland Zebras at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Moreland Zebras 5–0 Langwarrin

Moreland Zebras beat Langwarrin 5-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 15, 2022.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.