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Langwarrin vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
2 – 2
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
4/30/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Langwarrin37%
×Draw23%
Moreland Zebras41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
1.63
Moreland Zebras
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.85
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.03
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
59%
Langwarrin or Moreland Zebras
77%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
63%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
18%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
80%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
48%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
22%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
82%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
52%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
47%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 67 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.85 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.63

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Langwarrin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Langwarrin scores more
37%
level
23%
Moreland Zebras scores more
41%

Moreland Zebras at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Langwarrin 2–2 Moreland Zebras

Langwarrin and Moreland Zebras drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1 in Langwarrin South.