Moreland City 2–1 Green Gully: Result & Stats

Moreland City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Green Gully

5/17/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 14CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Moreland City28%

×Draw24%

Green Gully48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreland CityExpected goals in this matchGreen Gully

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.70

Moreland City

1.26

Green Gully

1.70

Green Gully creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 87 away

1.00

creates per match

1.32

2.08

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Moreland City

1.00

Green Gully

1.32

allows per match

Moreland City

2.08

Green Gully

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreland City+0.00on par

Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland City ↓

Green Gully →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Moreland City or draw

52%

Moreland City or Green Gully

76%

Draw or Green Gully

72%

Winning margin

Moreland City wins by 2+

12%

Green Gully wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Moreland City 1+ goals

72%

Moreland City 2+ goals

36%

Moreland City 3+ goals

13%

Green Gully 1+ goals

82%

Green Gully 2+ goals

51%

Green Gully 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Moreland City (draw refunded)

37%

Green Gully (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland City attack 1.00 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Moreland City defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moreland City scores more

28%

level

24%

Green Gully scores more

48%

Green Gully at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff