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Green Gully vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2026

Green Gully
Green Gully
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moreland City
Moreland City
2/9/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 1Green Gully Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Green Gully60%
×Draw18%
Moreland City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Gully
2.56
Moreland City
1.50

Green Gully creates 71% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 26 away

creates per match

Green Gully
1.75
Moreland City
1.31

allows per match

Green Gully
1.70
Moreland City
3.38

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw
78%
Green Gully or Moreland City
82%
Draw or Moreland City
40%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+
39%
Moreland City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals
92%
Green Gully 2+ goals
72%
Green Gully 3+ goals
46%
Moreland City 1+ goals
78%
Moreland City 2+ goals
44%
Moreland City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)
74%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Moreland City defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.56

Moreland City attack 1.31 + Green Gully defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Green Gully scores more
60%
level
18%
Moreland City scores more
22%

Green Gully at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Gully vs Moreland City

Green Gully beat Moreland City 1-0 in Victoria NPL on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Green Gully Reserve in Melbourne.