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Moreirense vs Belenenses — Segunda Liga 2018

Moreirense
Moreirense
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Belenenses
Belenenses
2/19/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 21Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Moreirense59%
×Draw20%
Belenenses21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreirense
2.22
Belenenses
1.26

Moreirense creates 76% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Moreirense
2.88
Belenenses
1.28

allows per match

Moreirense
1.24
Belenenses
1.56

finishing

Moreirense+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw
79%
Moreirense or Belenenses
80%
Draw or Belenenses
41%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+
37%
Belenenses wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals
89%
Moreirense 2+ goals
65%
Moreirense 3+ goals
38%
Belenenses 1+ goals
72%
Belenenses 2+ goals
36%
Belenenses 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)
74%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 2.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 2.88 + Belenenses defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.22

Belenenses attack 1.28 + Moreirense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Moreirense scores more
59%
level
20%
Belenenses scores more
21%

Moreirense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreirense vs Belenenses

Moreirense beat Belenenses 4-1 in Segunda Liga on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos.