Moreirense 4–1 Belenenses: Result & Stats

Moreirense

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Belenenses

2/7/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 21Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Moreirense45%

×Draw28%

Belenenses27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchBelenenses

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.96

Moreirense

1.33

Belenenses

0.96

Moreirense creates 39% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 68 away

1.25

creates per match

0.72

1.21

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Moreirense

1.25

Belenenses

0.72

allows per match

Moreirense

1.21

Belenenses

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreirense+0.00on par

Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Belenenses →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

73%

Moreirense or Belenenses

72%

Draw or Belenenses

55%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

21%

Belenenses wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

74%

Moreirense 2+ goals

38%

Moreirense 3+ goals

15%

Belenenses 1+ goals

62%

Belenenses 2+ goals

25%

Belenenses 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

63%

Belenenses (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 1.25 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Belenenses attack 0.72 + Moreirense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Moreirense scores more

45%

level

28%

Belenenses scores more

27%

Moreirense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff