Moreirense 3–2 Aves: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Moreirense

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Aves

11/30/2019

Primeira Liga · Round 12Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Moreirense52%

×Draw25%

Aves23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchAves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.00

Moreirense

1.63

Aves

1.00

Moreirense creates 63% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 34 away

1.25

creates per match

0.79

1.21

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Moreirense

1.25

Aves

0.79

allows per match

Moreirense

1.21

Aves

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreirense+0.00on par

Aves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Aves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

77%

Moreirense or Aves

75%

Draw or Aves

48%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

28%

Aves wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

80%

Moreirense 2+ goals

48%

Moreirense 3+ goals

22%

Aves 1+ goals

63%

Aves 2+ goals

26%

Aves 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

69%

Aves (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

Aves away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 1.25 + Aves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Aves attack 0.79 + Moreirense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Moreirense scores more

52%

level

25%

Aves scores more

23%

Moreirense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff