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Aves vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga 2018

Aves
Aves
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moreirense
Moreirense
5/10/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 33Estádio do CD das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aves35%
×Draw27%
Moreirense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aves
1.19
Moreirense
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 120 away

creates per match

Aves
0.94
Moreirense
0.97

allows per match

Aves
1.51
Moreirense
1.44

finishing

Aves+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aves ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aves or draw
63%
Aves or Moreirense
73%
Draw or Moreirense
65%

Winning margin

Aves wins by 2+
15%
Moreirense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aves 1+ goals
70%
Aves 2+ goals
33%
Aves 3+ goals
12%
Moreirense 1+ goals
71%
Moreirense 2+ goals
35%
Moreirense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aves (draw refunded)
48%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Moreirense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aves attack 0.94 + Moreirense defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Moreirense attack 0.97 + Aves defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aves scores more
35%
level
27%
Moreirense scores more
37%

Moreirense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Aves 0–1 Moreirense

Moreirense beat Aves 1-0 in Primeira Liga on May 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do CD das Aves in Vila das Aves.