Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Morecambe vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
10/3/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Morecambe36%
×Draw27%
Port Vale36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.24
Port Vale
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 118 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.31
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Morecambe
1.32
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
64%
Morecambe or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
64%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
71%
Morecambe 2+ goals
35%
Morecambe 3+ goals
13%
Port Vale 1+ goals
71%
Port Vale 2+ goals
35%
Port Vale 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
50%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.31 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Morecambe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Morecambe scores more
36%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
36%

Morecambe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Morecambe 1–0 Port Vale

Morecambe beat Port Vale 1-0 in League Two on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Globe Arena in Morecambe, Lancashire.