Morecambe 1–2 Ipswich: Result & Stats | League One

Morecambe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ipswich

K. Phillips 34'

L. Evans 65' (pen)

G. Edmundson 54'

10/8/2022

League One · Round 14Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Morecambe33%

×Draw27%

Ipswich40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.35

Morecambe

1.19

Ipswich

1.35

Ipswich creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 84 away

1.37

creates per match

1.27

1.43

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Morecambe

1.37

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Morecambe

1.43

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

60%

Morecambe or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

67%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

14%

Ipswich wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

70%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

12%

Ipswich 1+ goals

74%

Ipswich 2+ goals

39%

Ipswich 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

45%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.37 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Morecambe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Morecambe scores more

33%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

40%

Ipswich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

G. Edmundson

Ipswich · D

7.7

Match Events

23'

Fane Ousmane

32'

Ryan Delaney

34'

K. Phillips↳ L. Shaw

54'

G. Edmundson↳ L. Davis

62'

Jacob Bedeau

65'

L. EvansPenalty

66'

M. Harness← C. Chaplin

66'

W. Burns← K. Jackson

71'

Lee Evans

72'

Farrend Rawson

76'

F. Ladapo← T. John-Jules

76'

K. Vincent-Young← L. Davis

86'

Cole Stockton

86'

A. Mayor← D. Connolly

86'

R. Cooney← O. Fane

90+7'

Donald Love

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeIpswich

Overview

33%Possession67%

7Total Shots17

2Corners4

22Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots17

2On Target5

3Off Target8

2Blocked4

5Inside Box12

2Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

254Total Passes517

140Accurate Passes401

55%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls9

6Yellow Cards1

5Offsides4