Ipswich 4–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats | League One

Ipswich

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Morecambe

C. Chaplin 45+6', 38'

F. Ladapo 16', 1'

1/24/2023

League One · Round 26Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ipswich63%

×Draw21%

Morecambe16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.86

Ipswich

1.94

Morecambe

0.86

Ipswich creates 126% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 46 away

1.70

creates per match

0.89

0.83

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

84%

Ipswich or Morecambe

79%

Draw or Morecambe

37%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

38%

Morecambe wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

86%

Ipswich 2+ goals

58%

Ipswich 3+ goals

30%

Morecambe 1+ goals

58%

Morecambe 2+ goals

21%

Morecambe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

80%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ipswich scores more

63%

level

21%

Morecambe scores more

16%

Ipswich at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Ladapo

Ipswich · F

8.6

Match Events

1'

F. Ladapo

16'

F. Ladapo↳ N. Broadhead

38'

45+6'

46'

46'

46'

46'

46'

49'

64'

64'

K. Edwards← N. Broadhead

64'

C. Humphreys← Sam Morsy

65'

Daniel Crowley

70'

Conor Chaplin

74'

M. Harness← C. Chaplin

83'

A. Hunter← C. Stockton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichMorecambe

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots4

6Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots4

9On Target0

4Off Target1

6Blocked3

13Inside Box3

6Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

587Total Passes373

478Accurate Passes262

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2