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Morecambe vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Grimsby
Grimsby
2/24/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Mazuma Mobile Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Morecambe40%
×Draw26%
Grimsby33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.36
Grimsby
1.22

Morecambe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 158 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.31
Grimsby
1.11

allows per match

Morecambe
1.32
Grimsby
1.41

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
67%
Morecambe or Grimsby
74%
Draw or Grimsby
60%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
18%
Grimsby wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
74%
Morecambe 2+ goals
39%
Morecambe 3+ goals
16%
Grimsby 1+ goals
70%
Grimsby 2+ goals
34%
Grimsby 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
54%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.31 + Grimsby defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Grimsby attack 1.11 + Morecambe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Morecambe scores more
40%
level
26%
Grimsby scores more
33%

Morecambe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morecambe vs Grimsby

Morecambe and Grimsby drew 1-1 in League Two on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Mazuma Mobile Stadium in Morecambe, Lancashire.