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Grimsby vs Morecambe — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Morecambe
Morecambe
4/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 43Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Grimsby44%
×Draw26%
Morecambe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.49
Morecambe
1.20

Grimsby creates 24% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 112 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.23
Morecambe
1.10

allows per match

Grimsby
1.30
Morecambe
1.75

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
69%
Grimsby or Morecambe
74%
Draw or Morecambe
56%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
22%
Morecambe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
77%
Grimsby 2+ goals
44%
Grimsby 3+ goals
19%
Morecambe 1+ goals
70%
Morecambe 2+ goals
34%
Morecambe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
59%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.49

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grimsby scores more
44%
level
26%
Morecambe scores more
31%

Grimsby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Morecambe

Morecambe beat Grimsby 3-0 in League Two on April 20, 2021.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.