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Morecambe vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Grimsby
Grimsby
A. Phillips 90+3'
Carlos Gomes 71', 57'
M. Pollock 21'
12/26/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Morecambe38%
×Draw27%
Grimsby35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.31
Grimsby
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 138 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.24
Grimsby
1.15

allows per match

Morecambe
1.34
Grimsby
1.38

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
65%
Morecambe or Grimsby
73%
Draw or Grimsby
62%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
17%
Grimsby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
73%
Morecambe 2+ goals
38%
Morecambe 3+ goals
14%
Grimsby 1+ goals
71%
Grimsby 2+ goals
36%
Grimsby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
52%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Morecambe scores more
38%
level
27%
Grimsby scores more
35%

Morecambe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Carlos GomesMorecambeMorecambe · M
8.3

Match Events

21'
M. Pollock
45'
Cole Stockton
56'
Yann Songo'o
57'
Carlos Gomes↳ J. Slew
68'
M. Gibson← I. Jackson
71'
Carlos Gomes
72'
O. Edwards← K. Bennett
77'
J. Tilley← Filipe Morais
77'
G. Williams← M. Green
86'
T. Diagouraga← J. Slew
90+3'
A. Phillips↳ Carlos Gomes

Possession

50%Morecambe

Shots

11Morecambe

Pass accuracy

50%Morecambe

Statistics

MorecambeGrimsby
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots6
8Corners2
9Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots6
5On Target3
2Off Target3
4Blocked0
8Inside Box3
3Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
310Total Passes312
170Accurate Passes171
55%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls17
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

League Two: Morecambe 3–1 Grimsby

Morecambe beat Grimsby 3-1 in League Two on December 26, 2020.

Goals: M. Pollock (21'), Carlos Gomes (57', 71'), A. Phillips (90+3').

Morecambe controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Globe Arena in Morecambe, Lancashire.