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Morecambe vs Crewe — League One 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
12/29/2021League OneLeague One · Round 25Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Morecambe45%
×Draw26%
Crewe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.49
Crewe
1.14

Morecambe creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.37
Crewe
0.85

allows per match

Morecambe
1.43
Crewe
1.61

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
71%
Morecambe or Crewe
74%
Draw or Crewe
55%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
22%
Crewe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
77%
Morecambe 2+ goals
44%
Morecambe 3+ goals
19%
Crewe 1+ goals
68%
Crewe 2+ goals
32%
Crewe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
61%
Crewe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.37 + Crewe defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Crewe attack 0.85 + Morecambe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Morecambe scores more
45%
level
26%
Crewe scores more
29%

Morecambe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Morecambe 1–2 Crewe

Crewe beat Morecambe 2-1 in League One on December 29, 2021.

The match was played at Mazuma Stadium in Morecambe, Lancashire.