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Crewe vs Morecambe — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
9/7/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Crewe49%
×Draw24%
Morecambe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.67
Morecambe
1.15

Crewe creates 45% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 112 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.59
Morecambe
1.10

allows per match

Crewe
1.19
Morecambe
1.75

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
74%
Crewe or Morecambe
76%
Draw or Morecambe
51%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
26%
Morecambe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
81%
Crewe 2+ goals
50%
Crewe 3+ goals
23%
Morecambe 1+ goals
68%
Morecambe 2+ goals
32%
Morecambe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
65%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.67

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crewe scores more
49%
level
24%
Morecambe scores more
26%

Crewe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crewe 1–0 Morecambe

Crewe beat Morecambe 1-0 in League Two on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.