Morecambe 2–2 Charlton: Result & Stats | League One

Morecambe

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Charlton

A. O'Connor 72'

C. Stockton 29' (pen)

C. Washington 27'

D. Jaiyesimi 2'

11/23/2021

League One · Round 19Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Morecambe37%

×Draw26%

Charlton37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.32

Morecambe

1.31

Charlton

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 143 away

1.37

creates per match

1.22

1.43

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Morecambe

1.37

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Morecambe

1.43

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

63%

Morecambe or Charlton

74%

Draw or Charlton

63%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

16%

Charlton wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

73%

Morecambe 2+ goals

38%

Morecambe 3+ goals

14%

Charlton 1+ goals

73%

Charlton 2+ goals

38%

Charlton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

50%

Charlton (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.37 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Charlton attack 1.22 + Morecambe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Morecambe scores more

37%

level

26%

Charlton scores more

37%

Morecambe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. O'Connor

Morecambe · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

D. Jaiyesimi↳ J. Davison

27'

C. Washington↳ C. MacGillivray

28'

Chris Gunter

29'

C. StocktonPenalty

60'

Jonah Ayunga

69'

George Dobson

69'

A. Phillips← C. Duffus

72'

A. O'Connor↳ A. Phillips

74'

C. Blackett-Taylor← D. Jaiyesimi

78'

C. Kirk← C. Gunter

86'

M. Burstow← J. Davison

90+1'

Greg Leigh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeCharlton

Overview

33%Possession67%

7Total Shots16

3Corners6

10Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots16

2On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked9

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

33%Possession67%

244Total Passes491

128Accurate Passes373

52%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2