Charlton 2–3 Morecambe: Result & Stats | League One

Charlton

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Morecambe

S. Fraser 79'

J. Rak-Sakyi 45+1'

J. Weir 64'

C. Stockton 57', 8'

4/22/2023

League One · Round 44The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Charlton58%

×Draw22%

Morecambe20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.01

Charlton

1.91

Morecambe

1.01

Charlton creates 89% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 46 away

1.65

creates per match

0.89

1.13

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

80%

Charlton or Morecambe

78%

Draw or Morecambe

42%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

34%

Morecambe wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

85%

Charlton 2+ goals

57%

Charlton 3+ goals

30%

Morecambe 1+ goals

64%

Morecambe 2+ goals

27%

Morecambe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

75%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.91

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Charlton scores more

58%

level

22%

Morecambe scores more

20%

Charlton at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Stockton

Morecambe · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

C. Stockton

33'

Miles Leaburn

45+1'

J. Rak-Sakyi

52'

M. Melbourne← P. Souaré

57'

C. Stockton↳ J. Weir

61'

T. Campbell← J. Payne

61'

S. Fraser← A. Henry

64'

J. Weir

69'

D. Kanu← S. Sessegnon

72'

J. Taylor← D. Crowley

79'

S. Fraser↳ S. Clare

86'

O. Niasse← J. Weir

86'

R. Delaney← A. Gnahoua

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonMorecambe

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots12

8Corners1

9Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots12

6On Target4

8Off Target2

5Blocked6

10Inside Box6

9Outside Box6

Passing

69%Possession31%

586Total Passes276

487Accurate Passes178

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0