Morecambe 5–0 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Burton Albion

C. Watts 83', 51'

K. Phillips 55', 32'

J. Weir 45+1'

1/1/2023

League One · Round 25Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Morecambe42%

×Draw25%

Burton Albion32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.25

Morecambe

1.48

Burton Albion

1.25

Morecambe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 176 away

1.37

creates per match

1.06

1.43

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Morecambe

1.37

Burton Albion

1.06

allows per match

Morecambe

1.43

Burton Albion

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

68%

Morecambe or Burton Albion

75%

Draw or Burton Albion

58%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

21%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

77%

Morecambe 2+ goals

43%

Morecambe 3+ goals

19%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

71%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

36%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

57%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.37 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Morecambe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Morecambe scores more

42%

level

25%

Burton Albion scores more

32%

Morecambe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. Phillips

Morecambe · F

8.5

Match Events

32'

K. Phillips

45+1'

J. Weir

46'

C. Watts← C. Stockton

46'

J. Smith← C. Ndaba

51'

C. Watts↳ K. Phillips

55'

K. Phillips↳ A. Mayor

57'

M. Carayol← T. Onyango

66'

Caleb Watts

69'

D. Keillor-Dunn← B. Kamwa

75'

Terry Taylor

75'

A. Gnahoua← K. Phillips

77'

J. Dodoo← A. Mariappa

80'

D. Love← J. Weir

83'

C. Watts↳ R. Cooney

84'

D. Connolly← A. Mayor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeBurton

Overview

40%Possession60%

18Total Shots7

8Corners2

12Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots7

11On Target0

4Off Target5

3Blocked2

12Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

261Total Passes393

142Accurate Passes276

54%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0