Burton Albion 1–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Morecambe

D. Keillor-Dunn 30'

R. Delaney 77'

10/15/2022

League One · Round 15Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Burton Albion52%

×Draw24%

Morecambe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.09

Burton Albion

1.73

Morecambe

1.09

Burton Albion creates 59% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 46 away

1.29

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.29

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.30

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

76%

Burton Albion or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

48%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

29%

Morecambe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

82%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

52%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

25%

Morecambe 1+ goals

66%

Morecambe 2+ goals

30%

Morecambe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

69%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Burton Albion scores more

52%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

24%

Burton Albion at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

T. Taylor

Burton Albion · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

Dylan Connolly

25'

Liam Shaw

30'

D. Keillor-Dunn

42'

J. Powell← S. Winnall

46'

R. Cooney← D. Love

46'

O. Fane← D. Connolly

67'

C. Watts← J. Weir

76'

77'

78'

79'

81'

84'

84'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonMorecambe

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots6

6Corners2

6Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots6

3On Target4

6Off Target2

6Blocked0

11Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

364Total Passes297

210Accurate Passes141

58%Pass Accuracy47%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0