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Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
10/28/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Morecambe37%
×Draw28%
AFC Wimbledon35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.19
AFC Wimbledon
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 70 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.31
AFC Wimbledon
0.96

allows per match

Morecambe
1.32
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
65%
Morecambe or AFC Wimbledon
72%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
63%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
16%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
70%
Morecambe 2+ goals
33%
Morecambe 3+ goals
12%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
68%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
32%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
52%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.31 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Morecambe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Morecambe scores more
37%
level
28%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
35%

Morecambe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon

Morecambe beat AFC Wimbledon 4-1 in League Two on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Mazuma Stadium in Morecambe, Lancashire.