AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Morecambe

1/15/2022

League One · Round 28The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

AFC Wimbledon49%

×Draw24%

Morecambe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.17

AFC Wimbledon

1.66

Morecambe

1.17

AFC Wimbledon creates 42% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 46 away

1.15

creates per match

0.89

1.45

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.15

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

73%

AFC Wimbledon or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

51%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

26%

Morecambe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

81%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

49%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

23%

Morecambe 1+ goals

69%

Morecambe 2+ goals

33%

Morecambe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

64%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.15 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.66

Morecambe attack 0.89 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

49%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

27%

AFC Wimbledon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff