Mordovia Saransk 1–2 Krasnodar 2: Result & Stats

Mordovia Saransk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Krasnodar 2

7/29/2018

First League · Round 3Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mordovia Saransk39%

×Draw29%

Krasnodar 232%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mordovia SaranskExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.06

Mordovia Saransk

1.20

Krasnodar 2

1.06

Mordovia Saransk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 91 away

0.81

creates per match

0.89

1.24

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk

0.81

Krasnodar 2

0.89

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk

1.24

Krasnodar 2

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Krasnodar 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw

68%

Mordovia Saransk or Krasnodar 2

71%

Draw or Krasnodar 2

61%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

17%

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

70%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

34%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

12%

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

65%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

29%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

55%

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more

39%

level

29%

Krasnodar 2 scores more

32%

Mordovia Saransk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mordovia Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff