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Krasnodar 2 vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
CANC
22:00
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
5/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Krasnodar 245%
×Draw26%
Mordovia Saransk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.48
Mordovia Saransk
1.12

Krasnodar 2 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 36 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
71%
Krasnodar 2 or Mordovia Saransk
74%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
55%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
22%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
77%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
43%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
19%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
67%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
31%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
61%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
45%
level
26%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
29%

Krasnodar 2 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krasnodar 2 face Mordovia Saransk (First League)

First League returns with Krasnodar 2 hosting Mordovia Saransk. Match starts May 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.