Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mordovia Saransk vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2018

Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
8/26/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mordovia Saransk35%
×Draw28%
Chertanovo Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mordovia Saransk
1.18
Chertanovo Moscow
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk
0.81
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk
1.24
Chertanovo Moscow
1.54

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw
63%
Mordovia Saransk or Chertanovo Moscow
72%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
65%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
15%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
69%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
33%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
12%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
70%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
34%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
49%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more
35%
level
28%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
37%

Chertanovo Moscow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Mordovia Saransk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Mordovia Saransk 2-1 in First League on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena (Saransk).