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Chertanovo Moscow vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
3/15/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow45%
×Draw26%
Mordovia Saransk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.49
Mordovia Saransk
1.15

Chertanovo Moscow creates 30% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 36 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.36
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.30
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
71%
Chertanovo Moscow or Mordovia Saransk
74%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
55%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
22%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
77%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
44%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
19%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
68%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
32%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
61%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
45%
level
26%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
29%

Chertanovo Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Mordovia Saransk

Chertanovo Moscow beat Mordovia Saransk 3-0 in First League on March 15, 2020.

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.