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Moravac Mrštane vs Kablovi Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
FT
3 – 0
Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
5/1/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 32SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Moravac Mrštane67%
×Draw15%
Kablovi Zaječar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moravac Mrštane
3.51
Kablovi Zaječar
1.88

Moravac Mrštane creates 87% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane
1.19
Kablovi Zaječar
0.53

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane
3.22
Kablovi Zaječar
5.84

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par
Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw
82%
Moravac Mrštane or Kablovi Zaječar
85%
Draw or Kablovi Zaječar
33%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
48%
Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
97%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
86%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
66%
Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
85%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
56%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
78%
Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.51

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more
67%
level
15%
Kablovi Zaječar scores more
18%

Moravac Mrštane at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Moravac Mrštane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Moravac Mrštane 3–0 Kablovi Zaječar

Moravac Mrštane beat Kablovi Zaječar 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.