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Kablovi Zaječar vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
FT
5 – 2
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
10/18/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion FK Kablovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kablovi Zaječar45%
×Draw19%
Moravac Mrštane36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kablovi Zaječar
2.56
Moravac Mrštane
2.31

Kablovi Zaječar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kablovi Zaječar
0.95
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Kablovi Zaječar
3.84
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kablovi Zaječar ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Kablovi Zaječar or draw
64%
Kablovi Zaječar or Moravac Mrštane
81%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
55%

Winning margin

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
27%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
92%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
72%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
46%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
90%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
67%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
55%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.56

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kablovi Zaječar scores more
45%
level
19%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
36%

Kablovi Zaječar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kablovi Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Kablovi Zaječar 5–2 Moravac Mrštane

Kablovi Zaječar beat Moravac Mrštane 5-2 in Srpska Liga - East on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kablovi in Zaječar.