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Moravac Mrštane vs Car Konstantin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
FT
1 – 3
Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
8/22/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane31%
×Draw21%
Car Konstantin48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moravac Mrštane
1.77
Car Konstantin
2.21

Car Konstantin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane
1.19
Car Konstantin
1.19

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane
3.22
Car Konstantin
2.36

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par
Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Car Konstantin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw
52%
Moravac Mrštane or Car Konstantin
79%
Draw or Car Konstantin
69%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
16%
Car Konstantin wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
83%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
53%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
26%
Car Konstantin 1+ goals
89%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
65%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
40%
Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more
31%
level
21%
Car Konstantin scores more
48%

Car Konstantin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moravac Mrštane vs Car Konstantin

Car Konstantin beat Moravac Mrštane 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.