Car Konstantin 9–0 Moravac Mrštane: Result & Stats

Car Konstantin

FT

9 – 0

Moravac Mrštane

4/7/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 21Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Car Konstantin72%

×Draw15%

Moravac Mrštane13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Car KonstantinExpected goals in this matchMoravac Mrštane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.20

Car Konstantin

2.92

Moravac Mrštane

1.20

Car Konstantin creates 143% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

1.67

creates per match

0.79

1.60

allows per match

4.18

creates per match

Car Konstantin

1.67

Moravac Mrštane

0.79

allows per match

Car Konstantin

1.60

Moravac Mrštane

4.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Moravac Mrštane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw

87%

Car Konstantin or Moravac Mrštane

85%

Draw or Moravac Mrštane

28%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+

51%

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals

94%

Car Konstantin 2+ goals

78%

Car Konstantin 3+ goals

55%

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals

70%

Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals

34%

Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)

85%

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.92

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Car Konstantin scores more

72%

level

15%

Moravac Mrštane scores more

13%

Car Konstantin at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff