Morava Vladičin Han 1–1 Mladost Medoševac

Morava Vladičin Han

FT

1 – 1

Mladost Medoševac

5/22/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 36Stadion FK Morava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Morava Vladičin Han53%

×Draw22%

Mladost Medoševac25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morava Vladičin HanExpected goals in this matchMladost Medoševac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.34

Morava Vladičin Han

2.02

Mladost Medoševac

1.34

Morava Vladičin Han creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.68

creates per match

1.21

1.47

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.68

Mladost Medoševac

1.21

allows per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.47

Mladost Medoševac

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Vladičin Han ↓

Mladost Medoševac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Morava Vladičin Han or draw

75%

Morava Vladičin Han or Mladost Medoševac

78%

Draw or Mladost Medoševac

47%

Winning margin

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+

31%

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals

87%

Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals

60%

Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals

33%

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals

74%

Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals

39%

Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)

68%

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Mladost Medoševac away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Mladost Medoševac defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.02

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.21 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Morava Vladičin Han scores more

53%

level

22%

Mladost Medoševac scores more

25%

Morava Vladičin Han at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff