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Mladost Medoševac vs Morava Vladičin Han — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
5 – 1
Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
11/15/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac61%
×Draw21%
Morava Vladičin Han18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
2.06
Morava Vladičin Han
1.03

Mladost Medoševac creates 100% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Morava Vladičin Han
0.95

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Morava Vladičin Han
2.79

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
82%
Mladost Medoševac or Morava Vladičin Han
79%
Draw or Morava Vladičin Han
39%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
37%
Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
87%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
61%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
34%
Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
64%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
28%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
77%
Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.06

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
61%
level
21%
Morava Vladičin Han scores more
18%

Mladost Medoševac at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Mladost Medoševac 5–1 Morava Vladičin Han

Mladost Medoševac beat Morava Vladičin Han 5-1 in Srpska Liga - East on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.