Morava Vladičin Han 11–0 Kablovi Zaječar

Morava Vladičin Han

FT

11 – 0

Kablovi Zaječar

5/15/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 34Stadion FK Morava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Morava Vladičin Han84%

×Draw10%

Kablovi Zaječar6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morava Vladičin HanExpected goals in this matchKablovi Zaječar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.76

1.00

Morava Vladičin Han

3.76

Kablovi Zaječar

1.00

Morava Vladičin Han creates 276% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.68

creates per match

0.53

1.47

allows per match

5.84

creates per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.68

Kablovi Zaječar

0.53

allows per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.47

Kablovi Zaječar

5.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Vladičin Han ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Morava Vladičin Han or draw

94%

Morava Vladičin Han or Kablovi Zaječar

90%

Draw or Kablovi Zaječar

16%

Winning margin

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+

68%

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals

97%

Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals

88%

Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals

70%

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals

63%

Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals

26%

Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)

93%

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.76

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Morava Vladičin Han scores more

84%

level

10%

Kablovi Zaječar scores more

6%

Morava Vladičin Han at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff